🌀How War Shaped E-commerce in Ukraine?⚔️

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🌀This week, we’re excited to introduce MarketMaze+, a deeper dive into original content we think you’ll find valuable. To kick things off, we’re exploring a fascinating topic: “How War Shaped E-commerce in Ukraine⚔️.” It’s a story of resilience, innovation, and adaptation.

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This MarketMaze report integrates data from global sources (Worldometer, Statista, World Bank) and local entities (Derzhstat, War.Ukraine), supplemented by insights from industry blogs like New Age, Yespo, and Signifyd. It examines Ukraine's e-commerce trajectory before, during, and after the 2022 invasion, highlighting key trends and shifts. The analysis provides a comprehensive view of the sector's resilience and adaptation amid conflict.

• Russia's aggression escalated over years, culminating in a full-scale invasion in February 2022, severely disrupting Ukraine's economy.

• E-commerce faced significant challenges due to logistical breakdowns and infrastructure damage.

• Despite adversity, Ukraine's resilience, bolstered by international support, sustained some digital operations.

• Pre-war, Ukraine's GDP grew by 14% (2019-2021), outpacing regional peers like Poland (+7%) and Estonia (+9%).

• This economic momentum attracted international interest, with platforms like Trendyol aiming to tap into Ukraine's market despite risks.

• The robust growth underscored the country's potential as a key player in Eastern Europe's digital economy.

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• Ukraine's GDP per capita rose by 15% (2019-2021), surpassing Estonia (+9%) and Latvia (+8%), even amid a 1% population decline.

• This growth highlighted strong economic fundamentals, attracting global e-commerce platforms and investors.

• The war temporarily halted this progress, but the consumer market's potential remained evident.

• In 2020, Ukraine's e-commerce market expanded by 41% year-over-year, reaching $4 billion, one of the highest growth rates in Eastern Europe.

• This surge was driven by increased internet penetration and consumer trust in online shopping, with significant contributions from electronics and fashion sectors.

• The rapid growth attracted attention from international platforms seeking to enter the burgeoning market.

• By 2021, 79% of Ukrainians were internet users, with e-shoppers comprising 64% of them, and an average spend per shopper of €183, indicating market maturity.

• This digital adoption laid the groundwork for e-commerce resilience during the invasion.

• The growing consumer base presented unique opportunities, drawing the attention of global e-commerce platforms.

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• Ukraine's GDP contracted by 28.8% in 2022 due to the invasion, with a rebound of 5.3% in 2023, and projections indicating a 4.0% increase in 2024, signaling gradual economic stabilization.

• E-commerce revenue mirrored this trajectory, showing resilience post-crisis.

• International platforms view this recovery as a signal for long-term opportunities in Ukraine's digital market.

• E-commerce revenue fell by 87% in 2022, dropping to $379 million, but is projected to surpass $3.85 billion by 2025, led by essential goods.

• Cross-border partnerships enabled Ukrainian sellers to regain global market access.

• The sector's recovery underscores its resilience and adaptability amid adversity.

• E-commerce sales plummeted by 96% by the end of February 2022, driven by logistical breakdowns and consumer uncertainty.

• Global solidarity purchases helped some Ukrainian businesses stay afloat during the crisis.

• The collapse highlighted vulnerabilities in Ukraine's logistics infrastructure, crucial for e-commerce survival.

• Online shopper activity dropped to 22% of pre-invasion levels by March 2022 but rebounded to 80% by late 2022, fully recovering by July 2023.

• Improved logistics and increased reliance on digital channels drove the rebound.

• The market's recovery attracted renewed interest from international platforms like Trendyol.

• Categories like food, medicine, and household goods recovered first in early 2022, reflecting shifts toward essentials.

• Durable goods, such as electronics and pet supplies, rebounded strongly later in the year.

• These shifts reflected a prioritization of essential needs over discretionary spending.

• Post-invasion, consumer spending shifted towards essentials, with food and household goods seeing increased demand.

• Discretionary categories like electronics and fashion experienced slower recovery, highlighting changes in consumer priorities.

• Platforms optimized offerings to meet evolving demand, focusing on essential categories.

• Rozetka's sales increased from $246 million in 2022 to $1.33 billion in 2023, solidifying its position as Ukraine's top e-commerce platform.

• Makeup and Eva also demonstrated resilience, with revenues reaching $187 million and $115 million respectively in 2023.

• These platforms adapted quickly to consumer needs, ensuring business continuity.

• Online sales penetration dropped to 0.5% in 2022 during the war but is expected to surpass 3.6% by 2025, reaching record highs.

• The shift towards digital adoption accelerated as platforms rebuilt operations post-crisis.

• E-commerce’s growing share of total retail sales reflects the sector’s role in economic recovery.

• Mobile’s share of e-commerce revenue grew to 42% (2025 forecast), compared to 39% in 2019, reflecting a strong shift to mobile-first strategies.

• Increasing mobile penetration and ease of use made smartphones the dominant channel for online shopping.

• Platforms are prioritizing mobile-friendly experiences to cater to the preferences of digital-first consumers.

That’s all. See you next week in the 🌀Maze!

Your guide through the maze (feel free to add me on Linkedin)

Artur Stańczuk Chief Strategy Officer at Packhelp, the leading European packaging marketplace. Previously worked ~8 yrs at Bain & Co. In the past, Digital Transformation Director at the leading Polish convenience chain Żabka and Entrepreneur that co-launched 3 startups