🌀 What to Expect This Cyber Week?🔥

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Adobe has published an interesting forecast for this year's holiday spending in the US. Data was found and published by Nuevo Sector (newsletter by Ismael Simon). Data comes from Adobe Analytics that covers 1+ trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.

📊 Adobe’s Holiday Spending Forecast

• Adobe Analytics projects U.S. online holiday sales will reach $240.8B (Nov. 1–Dec. 31, 2024), an 8.4% increase from 2023.

• In 2023, the holiday spend was $221.8B with a 4.9% growth.

• Mobile shopping is set to grow 12.8% YoY, contributing $128.1B, over half of the total online sales (53.2%).

💸 Cyber Week to Lead the Charge

• Cyber Week, including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday, will contribute $40.6B in sales, a 7.0% YoY growth.

• Cyber Monday alone is forecasted to generate $13.2B, while Black Friday is set to hit $10.8B, up 9.9% YoY.

• Shoppers are looking for deals earlier, and Black Friday and Thanksgiving Day are outpacing Cyber Monday in growth

🛍️ Major Discounts Across Categories

• Consumers will see up to 30% off electronics, while toys will have 27% off.

• TVs and sporting goods will reach record discounts of 24% and 20%, respectively.

• For apparel, computers, and furniture there will be 19% to 23% discounts.

📅 Best Time to Shop for Deals

• Thanksgiving Day will offer top deals on toys, appliances, and sporting goods.

• Black Friday will have the best discounts on TVs, while Cyber Monday is the best time for electronics and apparel.

• Pre-holiday deals start in October, with discounts up to 18% from Nov. 1 to 21, giving shoppers more time to plan.

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Adobe Analytics 2024 holiday shopping forecast also covers trends driving U.S. e-commerce, including the rise of influencers and the impact of generative AI on consumer behavior.

📈 E-commerce trends for Holiday 2024

• Adobe’s forecast covers Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2024, analyzing over 1T visits to U.S. retail sites and 100M products.

• Paid search remains the top sales driver (28% share of online revenue).

• Affiliate marketing, including influencers, is expected to grow by 7% to 10%. Social influencers convert shoppers 10x more than general social media content.

• Affiliates and partners, like social media influencers, hold 17.2% of online revenue.

🤖 Generative AI’s rising role

• Generative AI has doubled retail site traffic between Jan. 1 and Aug. 31, 2024.

• Direct referrals via AI-powered chatbots are 8x higher than in 2023.

• 20% of shoppers use AI to find deals, 19% to locate specific products, and 15% for brand suggestions.

• 40% plan to use AI tools for holiday shopping, focusing on finding deals and personalized recommendations.

According to data from Earnest, Temu experienced a significant reduction in shopper activity in August 2024 compared to January. Still, Temu performs well in the Discount spending market as reported by Financial Times.

📉 Shopper Decline at Temu

• Temu's platform saw a 25% drop in shoppers between January and August 2024, per Earnest credit card data.

• Shein and TikTok Shop grew its customer base in the first 8 months of 2024.

• TikTok Shop joined Amazon, Walmart, and Target in offering summer discounts, boosting sales during the summer.

📊 Temu’s Impact on US Discount Market

• Temu captured 17% of US discount spending in just two years, per Earnest Analytics data

• Dollar General’s market share dropped from 63% to 52% over the same period.

• Dollar Tree’s share also fell, now holding 19.5% of the market.

• Temu undercuts US stores by shipping cheap goods directly from China, disrupting the dollar store model.

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▶🇺🇸 Amazon unveils Supply Chain service. Amazon has launched its fully-managed Supply Chain service, allowing sellers to streamline operations and improve delivery speeds by 20%. The service also reduces costs by up to 25%. Sellers like Juvo+ report doubled sales conversions due to faster deliveries.

▶🇩🇪 Otto drops 1K sellers due to high fees. Between April and August 2024, Otto.de saw 1,178 seller accounts disappear, a 17% drop. Rising fees led 500 partners to quit, while Otto terminated 150 more over alleged violations. The company's own revenue fell by 4.7% to $6.5B, pressured by rivals like Temu.

▶🇮🇳 Flipkart Launches App for Refurbished Product Sellers. Flipkart launched "Reset for Business" on Sept. 25, 2024, aiming to assist sellers of refurbished products in over 800 Indian cities. The app offers competitive pricing, rigorous testing, and a 74-point quality check.

▶🇺🇸 Walmart kicks off Oct. sales event to compete. Walmart is launching its first Holiday Deals event from Oct. 8 to Oct. 13, with Walmart+ members receiving 12-hour early access. The event coincides with Target's Circle Week and Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days, intensifying the competition among retailers.

▶🇺🇸 American Eagle sues Amazon for trademark misuse. American Eagle filed a lawsuit against Amazon for unauthorized use of its Aerie and Offline by Aerie trademarks in ads and URLs, redirecting customers to substandard knock-offs. The lawsuit demands tripled damages and a halt to infringements.

▶🇺🇸 Amazon employees push back on RTO mandate. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy announced a 5-day return-to-office (RTO) mandate, sparking dissatisfaction among employees. An internal survey reveals strong opposition, with concerns about collaboration and the risk of brain drain. Will Amazon listen?

▶🇨🇳 TikTok expands Subscription feature globally. TikTok expands its Subscription feature beyond LIVE creators, enabling non-LIVE creators to offer exclusive perks and content to their followers. The feature rolls out in select regions with plans to expand globally. TikTok discontinues its music subscription service, focusing on partnerships with major streaming platforms like Spotify.

▶🇨🇳 Alibaba earmarks US$142M to boost Hong Kong sales. This Q4 initiative targets key categories like fashion, electronics, and skincare, with over 800 pickup stations available.

▶🇨🇭 Shein Adds Adidas, Nike, Tissot to Swiss Platform. Shein's Swiss platform now offers products from major brands like Adidas, Nike, and Tissot. This move follows a trend of increasing brand availability on Shein's platforms, sparking concerns among the brands themselves. Prices on Shein are significantly lower, drawing comparisons to Amazon's past controversies.

▶🇩🇪 Zalando consolidates partner services platform. Zalando has unveiled a new unified platform called "Zalando Partner" to centralize its partner services, including wholesale, marketing, and logistics. This move aims to enhance the usability of its offerings and foster a leading European fashion ecosystem.

▶🇬🇧 Asos to cut 200+ head office roles in restructure. This comes after the retailer reported a $120M loss in the first half of 2024. The tech team is most affected, but new roles are being created.

▶🇯🇵 GU (Uniqlo brand) launches its first USA store in New York's SoHo, marking its expansion beyond Asia. The 950 sqm store offers trendy, affordable items. GU also unveiled a collaboration with Japanese brand Undercover & launched online shop + app for the US market.

▶🇮🇳 AJIO adds H&M, expands its global brand lineup. Reliance's AJIO partners with H&M to enhance its online presence and expand its international brand portfolio. H&M offers over 10,000 styles, starting at ₹399, across womenswear, menswear, kidswear, and home décor, including the A/W 2024 collection.

▶🇺🇸 Nike CEO John Donahoe steps down, Hill steps in. Nike CEO John Donahoe will step down on Oct. 13, to be succeeded by company veteran Elliott Hill. Hill, who retired in 2020, brings 32 years of Nike experience back to the role. Nike’s shares surged 8% in after-hours trading following the announcement.

▶🇺🇸 eBay launches new luxury consignment service. eBay teams up with Luxe Collective to launch a consignment service for luxury handbags, starting with top brands like Chanel and Hermès. The service promises a potential 45% increase in sales price.

▶🇩🇪 Mytheresa rebrands in China, launches WeChat shop. Mytheresa is boosting its Chinese presence with a new brand name '美遴世' and a WeChat Mini Program, aiming to strengthen its position in the luxury market. This move comes as other Western retailers are exiting the region.

▶🇬🇧 Tesco relaunches online F&F clothing range. Tesco is preparing to relaunch its F&F clothing range online, marking its return since 2018. The new digital offering will complement Tesco’s marketplace, which launched in June. This move follows F&F’s exit from Next’s site earlier this year.

▶🇳🇱 Just Eat expands to deliver sex toys with Lovehoney in the U.K., Denmark, and Austria. As food delivery firms diversify, Just Eat leads with this unique partnership. The company has implemented age restrictions to ensure safe ordering.

▶🇺🇸 Mondelēz launches AI for personalized marketing. Mondelēz introduces a new AI-powered platform to boost global marketing and tap into consumer trends. The platform, developed with Accenture and Publicis Groupe, aims to speed up content creation, personalize messages, and drive innovation.

▶🇺🇸 DoorDash tests W2 workers for deliveries. DoorDash partners with local companies in Austin and Fresno to pilot a new model where delivery workers are W2 employees, earning hourly wages, benefits, and reimbursements. This experiment contrasts with DoorDash's traditional gig-worker approach, representing a significant shift in the delivery service industry.

▶🇺🇸DoorDash unveils new commerce platform for merchants. DoorDash introduces the DoorDash Commerce Platform, offering merchants tools to manage and grow their businesses across in-store and online channels. The platform includes features like branded mobile apps, AI-powered phone ordering, and a revamped Business Manager App.

▶🇬🇧 Not On The High Street partners with Deliveroo to offer over 1,000 gifts from small brands across London, with deliveries in 25 minutes. The initiative supports small UK businesses and expands Deliveroo's growing "Deliveroo Shopping" service.

▶🇬🇧 Iceland launches 25-minute delivery nationwide. Iceland partners with Deliveroo to offer 25-minute delivery across the UK. Starting from 53 stores on September 25, the service will expand to 800 stores by the end of October, offering over 3,000 products, including exclusive brands and value ranges.

▶🇬🇧 Huel's advert banned for a second time in two months. Huel faces a second ban in two months as the UK’s Advertising Standards Authority finds its Instagram ad misleading. The advert made unsupported claims about the nutritional value and cost-effectiveness of the Daily Greens product. The watchdog also previously banned a Facebook ad in August.

▶🇵🇱 Goodspeed launches diet plans marketplace. Goodspeed's new marketplace, Foodango.pl, lets customers choose from 400 diet plans. The platform supports flexible daily orders from various producers. Goodspeed, a major Polish logistics provider, launched this to help diet producers grow sales.

▶🇺🇸 FedEx launches data-driven fdx platform. FedEx launched its fdx platform, now available to U.S. businesses. fdx leverages FedEx’s vast data network to optimize customer journeys and boost conversion rates. Since its initial announcement in January 2024, brands like Z Supply have already seen revenue increases by 6.33% and a 1.34% lift in mobile conversions.

▶🇺🇸 Meta expands AI chatbots for WhatsApp ads. Meta now lets businesses use AI chatbots on WhatsApp and Messenger for ad-embedded customer interactions, helping to increase sales. Despite Meta’s claim of improved engagement, many customers prefer human agents over AI chatbots.

▶🇺🇸 RedKangaroo rewards for social sharing. RedKangaroo, an e-commerce platform, rewards customers for promoting its brands on social media by offering discounts, cashback, and brand-specific vouchers. Shoppers can earn rewards by sharing posts on Instagram, TikTok, and X. Founded in 2022, RedKangaroo sells beauty, pet care, and home goods at discounted prices.

▶🇬🇧 TikTok Shop starts multi-day sales event. TikTok Shop launches its For You Days sales event in the UK, running from September 23rd to 30th. Shoppers can enjoy up to 50% off on trending brands like Made by Mitchell, Free Soul, and Sweaty Betty through LIVE shopping sessions led by top creators.

▶🇩🇪 Kik expands online, eyes Czech Republic. German retailer Kik pushes forward with its digital expansion by launching a new online store in Czechia. This follows a successful start in the Netherlands. Kik plans to link its online and offline presence, aiming for 5K stores across Europe.

▶🇺🇸 ShipStation integrates with Google for fast delivery. ShipStation's new Google Merchant Center integration leverages Google’s Content API to offer accurate, location-based delivery predictions. This boosts online shopping experiences by increasing visibility, ranking, and customer satisfaction for ShipStation users.

▶🇺🇸 HubSpot launches AI-powered Breeze at Inbound 2024. HubSpot unveils its new AI, Breeze, at INBOUND 2024, featuring Copilot, four Breeze Agents, and over 200 product updates. HubSpot also introduces agent.ai, a professional network for AI agents, with 47K users and 1,700 builders signed up.

▶🇺🇸 Checkout.com partners with Slope for US payments. Checkout.com and Slope partner to boost US enterprise payments. Slope’s $252M-funded platform offers "Pay Later" and "Pay Now" options, while Checkout.com provides global processing capabilities. Their collaboration aims to optimize payment performance and improve cash flow management, helping merchants thrive in the digital economy.

▶🇬🇧 Next buys 16% of Rockett St George for £800K. Next buys a 16% stake in Rockett St George for £800K. The deal strengthens their existing partnership and brings Next onto Rockett St George’s board. The investment is set to help the homeware brand expand its product range and customer base.

▶🇸🇪 Fjällräven launches resale platform with Archive. Fjällräven has launched a peer-to-peer resale marketplace in the U.S., powered by Archive. This platform allows customers to buy and sell used Fjällräven products. The resale market in the U.S. was $43B in 2023 and is expected to reach $73B by 2028.

▶🇩🇪 Cariqa secures $1.1M for EV charging marketplace. Cariqa, a Berlin-based startup, raised $1.1M to create the first consumer-facing EV charging marketplace. By connecting EV drivers directly with charge point operators, it promises transparent pricing and better utilization of 420K stations across Europe.

▶🇺🇸 ShipTop Raises $500K to Scale Fulfillment Services. ShipTop, an eCommerce fulfillment platform, secured $500K in seed funding from DV Trading co-founders Dino Verbrugge and Jared Vegosen. The funds will enhance ShipTop's technology, expand services, and support eco-friendly shipping. Founded in 2021, the company aims to revolutionize logistics for online merchants.

▶🇫🇷 Phacet raises $4.4M to expand AI for SMEs. Phacet raised $4.4M in seed funding on Sept. 23, 2024. The Paris-based startup aims to enhance AI adoption in SMEs across various sectors. Founder Nicolas Marchais says this will bridge the gap between AI models and SMEs' needs, making AI accessible and effective for small businesses.

▶🇩🇪 Distribusion secures $80M for global expansion. Distribusion, a Berlin-based ground transportation marketplace, raised $80M in Series C funding led by TQ Ventures. The company aims to expand globally and enhance its technology. Distribusion already supports 2,000+ transport companies and partners with 150+ distributors like Google and Booking.com.

That’s all. See you next week in the 🌀Maze!

Your guide through the maze

Artur Stańczuk Chief Strategy Officer at Packhelp, the leading European packaging marketplace. Previously worked ~8 yrs at Bain & Co. In the past, Digital Transformation Director at the leading Polish convenience chain Żabka and Entrepreneur that co-launched 3 startups